There's always next year

This is an article I don’t like to write because of its subject matter.

So without any further ado, here it is:

I have thrown in the towel, I’m done. My team couldn’t suck and under-perform any more than it already has. I’ve blown the whole thing up and am ready for next year. I traded away (way too much I’ll readily admit) a good portion of my team for Ryan Braun and John Lackey. Yes, I’ve taken a few shots by members of my league, but I don’t care. I’m done with this year. Next year is looking better. I’ll be starting with Rollins, Braun, Bay, Bedard and Lackey.

Some may say that it is too early to make a give-up trade. I disagree. I know my team, and I’ll call a spade a spade. I have no shot at placing in the top 3 or the top 5 for that matter. I was the first owner in my league to make such a trade, so I was able to target a player that I really wanted and set the bar for anyone else trying to make a give-up deal.

Wow, I feel better. That was very therapeutic.

When is the perfect time to panic?

Is it time to panic yet?

I currently am in 12th place in a 14-team mixed league. At one point two weeks ago I briefly flirted with 1st place. What’s my point? IT’S EARLY!!! All it takes is one strong day from your team to vault yourself up in the standings or one bad outing from a pitcher to knock down your pitching numbers.

As a general rule, I don’t really look at the standings until the first full week of May. At that time, I will start believing what I’m seeing. However, this doesn’t mean I won’t make any trades or actively try to make my team better. If I’m offered a trade where I know I’m getting the better end of the deal, despite what their current stats might show, I’ll make a trade.

So make a long story short: Don’t panic if your team is not performing up to expectations! It’s too early to throw in the towel!

Sleepers

SLEEPERS

As we are in the heart of baseball draft season, I figured it would be a good time to unveil my list of sleepers for 2008. So without further ado:

Austin Kearns: I think this is the year that the perennial sleeper finally breaks out. He’s got a better line up than last year and (possibly more importantly) a better hitter’s ballpark.

Dustan McGowan: He’s the number three starter for the Blue Jays, but he’s the first starter that I would take off of that team.

Jake Westbrook: Here’s a guy that I love to put on the back end of the rotation of any fantasy squad and you won’t have to worry about him. He had a down year last year with some injury issues. He’s about as dependable as they come and has the opportunity to get you 12-14 wins on a very good Cleveland team.

Luke Scott: I think Luke Scott is in line for a break out year this year. He’ll finally get the opportunity to play every day and will be playing in pretty decent hitters park.

Jason Kubel: He started to show his power at the end of the last season. I think he’s finally over his knee injuries and could be a very productive hitter as the Twins DH.

Zack Greinke: I think this one time uber-prospect will really solidify his position as a solid fantasy starter this year. He really pitched well down the stretch last year and I think that will carry over into this year.

Well, there you have it. There’s my list of potential sleepers for this year. Hopefully if they make they’re way to your team, they’ll be as productive as I predicted.

Not with a Ten Foot Pole

Every year, I go into drafts with a list of people that I will a.) Avoid at all costs or b.) Throw out in an auction for $1, knowing full well that someone else will bid on him. Here’s my preliminary list of must-avoids:

Dontrelle Willis – His numbers have been steadily declining and his fastball has slowly been applying the brakes. He will go for too much and be drafted too high for my liking.

Barry Bonds/Roger Clemens – Duh.

Miguel Tejada – Is he going to play a full year? Is he going to remain in the country for the whole year? Is he going to be suspended at all? Too many questions for my liking.

Albert Pujols – Now this one needs a little qualification. Would I draft him? Absolutely. Would I be able to get him at where I would draft him? No. A first round draft pick who can’t straighten his arm doesn’t sound too appealing.

Chad Tracy – I REFUSE to be fooled again by you. Never again. Nope. Not gonna happen. Been there, done that. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice and three times? What’s wrong with me?

Milton Bradley – For a guy whose name reminds some of children’s games, he’s not a very nice man. I hate having guys on my team whose attitude is what limits their at-bats. Just a personal preference.

Jose Guillen – See Bradley, Milton.

These are the guys that are at the top of my must-avoid list. Stay tuned for my late-round sleeper list. It will be coming soon…

I've Got my Eye on You

I’ve started to do my research (it seems like it gets earlier every year) for the upcoming 2008 baseball season. Here are a few of the bigger names and story lines that I’ll be watching closely:

Alex Rodriguez – Ok, Ok, Ok. We all know you’re good, like really good. But your numbers last year were RIDICULOUS. Do you have a repeat performance in you, or was your 2007 a great season that was fueled even more by “the contract year up tick”? I guess we’ll have to wait and see. Here’s hoping for some more “A-bombs, from A-Rod” (side note: as much as I am not a Yankee fan, I still love that home run call).

Huston Street – Huston, do we have a problem? Are you healthy? You’re a dominant closer when you are (2.88 ERA/0.94 Whip/1.26K’s per 9 innings). How’s the elbow feeling? Who will you be pitching for by the end of the season?

Magglio Ordonez – Are you really that good? You had MVP-caliber numbers last year and you’re surrounding line-up has improved even more this year. Still, last year’s numbers were WAY above your career norms. I’m expecting a little bit of a downturn this year.

Ryan Zimmerman – How’s the wrist? I am concerned. History shows that generally speaking, wrist injuries tend to sap the power of a player for at least a few months of the season, if not the majority of the following season. See Lee, Derrek.

Jeremy Bonderman – Will this finally be the year? Your skill sets and underlying number continue to point towards a breakout. A potential draft-day steal.

Jason Bay – What was that (2007) all about? Did your knee really bother you that much? You said it wasn’t an excuse. I sure hope it was. I’m looking for a bounce-back year from you (30+ hrs 10+ steals).

Travis Hafner – This was an even bigger let down than Mr. Bay’s. What’s going on here? I’m expecting a big return to form this year. I’m hopeful for 2006, but I’d be content with 2005.

Felix Hernandez – A better version of Bonderman. Underlying numbers scream “Potential current and future superstar”, 2007 baseball card stats say, not quite yet. I’m betting on a big time break out this year. Remember, he’ll only be 21 years old on opening day.

Preseason Trading

Well, it’s official. The fantasy baseball preseason has begun. Why would I make such a claim, you may ask? In the past week, I’ve had two trade proposals thrown my way (in a keeper league obviously). The interesting thing about these trade proposals is that they both involve two pitchers that were heavily discussed during the MLB winter meetings: Danny Haren (I still like to call him Danny), and Erik Bedard. What makes these proposals so interesting is that it brings to light a quandary that I have every baseball preseason: Do you try to trade your players before Spring Training starts?

Let’s take a look at both players and their situations:

Dan(ny) Haren: I believe that Haren was in a rather unique situation. The two strongest rumors (before he was traded) had him going to either the Yankees or the Diamondbacks. In either case, he would be leaving a very pitcher-friendly ballpark and heading to two hitting havens. Where these two rumors differ, however, is that with the Yankees, Haren would be facing the mighty bats of the AL East while with the D-Backs, Haren would be facing the likes of the Dodgers, Padres, and Giants (all strong pitchers parks).

Here’s a quick synopsis:

Haren – Yankees: Wins up, ERA and Whip rise slightly, and potential K’s slightly down.

Haren – D-Backs: Wins up, K’s up slightly, ERA and Whip slightly rise.

Either way you look at it, the potential trade to either team is about a wash with both being better than his current situation. Now, eventually, Haren was traded to the D-Backs for a slew of prospects. Was I thrilled? No. Was I bumming? No. I didn’t really care either way as I believe it really didn’t affect his value too dramatically. If you put my feet to the fire, I would say his value increased slightly.

Erik Bedard: I am all for Erik Bedard being traded. He has put up stellar numbers (when healthy) even though his team resides in the hitting-friendly AL East. Could you imagine what would happen if he left the AL East and pitched in a pitchers park like Shea Stadium or Dodger Stadium (two of the stronger trade rumors)? His K’s would go up markedly. His wins would almost have to go up by default and his ERA and Whip would most certainly fall as well. This is a win-win situation for any Bedard owners. With that being said, however, he is still very much keeper-worthy pitching in the AL East as he has proven he can pitch there.

What is the point? My point is that you need to take every player on a case-by-case basis. Personally, I plan on hanging onto both of these players because I believe that they both will have stellar years. Also, I don’t like to trade players before the start of spring training. I like to know the situations of all my players going into the season before I start trying to peddle them.

Heroes and Villians

With one week left in the MLB season, I’d like to acknowledge two different groups of players:

Villians:

Richie Sexson: When I thought I was buying low on you, I didn’t realize that I was buying high.

Chad Tracy: You’re the Lucy to my Charlie Brown. “Seriously, this time he’s really gonna break out and I’ll make a laughing stock of the league.” ARRRGH!

Nick Punto: OK, OK, OK. I knew you’re weren’t going to hit .290 again. Or .280. Or .270. I seriously would have been happy with .250. But honestly, .210? “I’ll take Team Batting Average Destroyers for 100, Alex.”

Rondell White: My bad.

Andy Marte: “Now batting clean up in the AAAA All-Star Game…”

Cliff Lee: His name is Cliff, as in “His fantasy value fell off of a…”

My new fantasy heroes:

Fausto Carmona: Sounds like an associate of Tony Soprano, mows down hitters like he is.

Ian Kinsler: A poor man’s Chase Utley.

Erik Bedard: How do I love thee? Let me count the K’s…221 to be exact.

C.C. Sabathia: Should change his initials to C.Y. Sabathia, as in Cy Young.

Alan Embree: I think I read that Embree is French for “Saves shot in the arm”

Magglio Ordonez: It’s gotta be the hair!